2023 is the first year to comprehensively implement the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress, and the year of economic recovery and development after the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. According to the Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development in 2022, the preliminary calculation shows that China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 will increase by 5.2% compared to the previous year; The economic scale exceeded 126 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP reached 89358 yuan, an increase of 5.4% over the previous year.
1、 Continuous optimization of electricity consumption structure
In 2023, the total electricity consumption of the society will be 9224.1 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. While maintaining steady growth in electricity consumption throughout society, the structure of electricity consumption continues to optimize. The proportion of electricity consumption by the secondary industry and urban and rural residents has slightly decreased, while the proportion of electricity consumption by the primary and tertiary industries has slightly increased.
Figure 1 Electricity consumption structure of the whole society from 2019 to 2023
2、 The output of power generation equipment continues to grow, reaching a new historical high
According to the statistics of the Machinery Industry Power Generation Equipment Center, the annual output of power generation equipment in China was 177.15 million kilowatts (calculated by generators), a year-on-year increase of 30.6%. Among them:
The hydropower unit has a capacity of 13.492 million kilowatts, accounting for 7.6%, a year-on-year increase of 53.1%;
Thermal power units have a capacity of 76.649 million kilowatts, accounting for 43.3%, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%;
Wind turbines have a capacity of 79.699 million kilowatts, accounting for 45.0%, a year-on-year increase of 39.7%;
The nuclear power unit has a capacity of 7.275 million kilowatts, accounting for 4.1%, a year-on-year increase of 230.7%.
Figure 2: Trend of Production Changes of Power Generation Equipment in the Past Five Years
Figure 3: Trend chart of the proportion of water, fire, wind, and nuclear power equipment production in the past five years
In 2023, the output of thermal power steam turbines reached 63.835 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% (including 6.833 million kilowatts of gas turbines, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%), of which 39.16 million kilowatts were supercritical and ultra supercritical steam turbines, accounting for 61.3% of thermal power steam turbines; The output of power plant boilers was 66.355 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, of which 43.43 million kilowatts were supercritical and ultra supercritical boilers, accounting for 65.5% of power plant boilers.
Figure 4: Trend of Production Changes of Thermal Power Generators, Steam Turbines, and Power Plant Boilers in the Past Five Years
3、 Maintain overall balance between electricity supply and demand, accelerate the construction of new energy systems and new power systems
In 2023, the newly installed power capacity will be about 370 million kilowatts, with a total installed capacity of 2.92 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%. For the first time, the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation has exceeded that of thermal power generation, accounting for over 50% of the total installed capacity; The installed capacity of renewable energy has reached 1.45 billion kilowatts, surpassing the historical installed capacity of thermal power, accounting for more than half of the total installed capacity of power generation in the country. The green and low-carbon development of power generation installation is accelerating, and the dominant position of wind and solar new energy in the newly added power installation is more consolidated.
Figure 5: National Electric Power Installed Capacity Structure from 2014 to 2023
By 2024, China's GDP growth target is around 5%, and electricity consumption will maintain steady growth. According to the forecast of China Electricity Council, the total electricity consumption of the whole society in 2024 is 9.8 trillion kilowatt hours, an increase of about 6% compared to 2023. By the end of 2024, the national installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 3.25 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of about 12%. Thermal power is 1.46 billion kilowatts, of which coal power is about 1.2 billion kilowatts, accounting for 37% of the total installed capacity. The total installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation is 1.86 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 57% of the total installed capacity; Among them, the grid connected wind power is 530 million kilowatts, and the grid connected solar power is 780 million kilowatts. The total installed capacity of grid connected wind and solar power will exceed that of coal-fired power, accounting for about 40% of the total installed capacity.
Although the current external environment is becoming more complex and the global economic growth momentum is insufficient, China's new energy has already established a good industrial foundation after years of development. The power generation equipment industry actively promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain and supply chain, accelerates the promotion of high-level technological self-reliance and self-improvement, actively cultivates emerging industries, deeply promotes the innovative development of the digital economy, and actively participates in the construction of the national unified electricity market. The vast majority of provinces and cities have put forward construction requirements for photovoltaics, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage, etc. from the aspects of planning goals, energy bases, industrial clusters, and project construction. Vigorously developing new energy remains the highlight of national energy construction.
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